International Astronomical Center: Thursday, February 19, First Day of Ramadan

The International Astronomical Center (IAC) has projected that the first day of Ramadan in 2026 is likely to fall on Thursday, Feb. 19, based on astronomical calculations and crescent visibility criteria used to estimate the start of lunar months in the Islamic calendar.

The projection addresses a recurring question for households, employers and service providers across Muslim-majority markets: how the timing of the holy month may align with the Gregorian calendar. While religious authorities in many countries ultimately confirm the start of Ramadan through official moon-sighting declarations, forecasts such as those published by astronomical centers are widely monitored by institutions that need to plan staffing, operating hours and seasonal demand.

How the projection is made

The IAC’s estimate is grounded in the science of lunar conjunction and the probability of observing the first crescent (hilal) after sunset. Astronomers evaluate factors that affect visibility, including the moon’s age, its altitude above the horizon at sunset, the angular separation between the moon and the sun, and atmospheric conditions that can either aid or hinder observation.

These criteria are used to map where the crescent may be visible by the naked eye, where it may require optical aid, and where it is unlikely to be seen at all. The IAC’s projection that Ramadan could begin on Thursday, Feb. 19 reflects an assessment that crescent visibility conditions around the relevant evening meet thresholds that support the start of the month under commonly referenced sighting standards.

In practice, the expected start hinges on whether the crescent can be observed on the evening preceding the first fasting day. If visibility is confirmed, the next day is counted as the first day of Ramadan; if not, the preceding month is completed to 30 days, delaying the start by a day. This is why projections are described in probabilistic terms rather than presented as final determinations.

Business planning implications across markets

Even without being a final religious ruling, a widely cited Ramadan start-date projection can influence commercial planning cycles well in advance. Companies across retail, food and beverage, transport, tourism, telecoms and financial services typically build Ramadan playbooks around timing assumptions, then adjust when official announcements are made locally.

The expected start around Feb. 19 would place Ramadan earlier in the year compared with some recent cycles, which can affect consumer behavior and operating patterns. Early-year Ramadan may coincide with different seasonal shopping rhythms, school calendars and travel patterns, influencing inventory build, promotional scheduling and workforce management. In many markets, daily consumption shifts toward evening hours during Ramadan, while daytime foot traffic can soften in some segments.

For employers and business operators, the month often comes with modified working hours in several jurisdictions, alongside higher demand during evening periods. Restaurants, delivery platforms and grocery retailers may see changes in peak ordering windows. Meanwhile, brands and advertisers typically concentrate spending around the run-up to Ramadan and the final 10 nights, culminating in Eid al-Fitr, when gift-giving and discretionary purchases often rise.

Sectors most exposed to calendar shifts

Industries with time-sensitive logistics and labor scheduling tend to monitor Ramadan timing closely. The earlier the month arrives, the sooner procurement, staffing and marketing plans may need to lock in. The following sectors are often among the most sensitive to start-date shifts:

• Retail and consumer goods, including groceries, confectionery, personal care and gifting
• Food service and delivery platforms, particularly for pre-dawn and evening demand
• Transport, ride-hailing and aviation, as travel and commuting patterns can change
• Media and advertising, due to concentrated seasonal campaigns
• Banks and payment providers, which may see changes in transaction timing and volumes

Businesses with regional footprints also face the operational complexity of potentially different official start dates across countries. While astronomical projections may indicate a likely start day, final declarations can vary depending on national moon-sighting committees, accepted criteria, and the extent to which jurisdictions rely on local sightings versus broader regional visibility.

Why the Ramadan start date can differ by country

Differences in the Ramadan start date are not uncommon, even when the underlying astronomical conditions are broadly similar. In some countries, official bodies prioritize local naked-eye sightings; in others, optical aid may be accepted, and some jurisdictions incorporate astronomical calculations more explicitly into decision-making.

Geography also matters. The crescent can be visible in one location and not in another on the same evening due to variations in sunset time, horizon conditions, and the moon’s position relative to the sun. As a result, an IAC projection may align closely with official decisions in many places, but it does not eliminate the possibility of one-day differences between neighboring markets.

For multinational firms, this creates a recurring planning issue: aligning product launches, store hours, staffing and communications to local observance. Many corporate calendars therefore treat the Ramadan start date as a range until confirmed, particularly for time-sensitive activities such as promotional rollouts, logistics cutoffs, and service-level commitments.

Market watch: planning windows and operational readiness

In the weeks leading up to Ramadan, businesses often adjust procurement and distribution schedules to ensure availability of staple items and seasonal products. If the Ramadan start date 2026 is expected around Feb. 19, planning windows may shift earlier, with some companies bringing forward supplier orders, warehousing capacity and promotional timelines.

Service providers that depend on staffing patterns may also prepare for altered demand curves. Call centers, fintech apps, delivery fleets and customer support teams typically reconfigure shift coverage around evening peaks. For energy and utilities, demand can shift geographically and temporally, reflecting extended evening activity in commercial areas. Hospitality and travel operators similarly track the calendar because it can affect occupancy mixes and the timing of holiday travel around Eid al-Fitr.

Investors and analysts often watch these seasonal patterns because they can influence quarterly performance for consumer-facing companies. While the impact varies by country and sector, Ramadan frequently reshapes revenue timing, promotional intensity and margin dynamics, especially for firms that compete aggressively on price and delivery during the month.

Disclaimer: The start of Ramadan is subject to official confirmation by relevant religious authorities in each country and may differ by jurisdiction depending on moon-sighting decisions.