PAGASA: LPA Outside PAR Likely to Become a Tropical Depression

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that a low-pressure area (LPA) monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has a chance of developing into a tropical depression as it continues to organize over nearby waters.

Weather forecasters said the system remains outside PAR but could influence conditions over parts of the country, particularly through enhanced cloudiness, rain, and stronger winds depending on its track and intensity. PAGASA said its outlook would be refined as the disturbance develops and as new satellite and model data become available.

Monitoring update and possible entry scenario

PAGASA said the LPA was being tracked for possible intensification, noting that tropical cyclones can develop from persistent low-pressure systems when environmental conditions support further organization. If the system becomes a tropical depression, PAGASA will issue the corresponding cyclone bulletins once it is within PAR or if it is expected to significantly affect the country.

In its latest update, the agency indicated that the system’s potential impacts would depend on whether it approaches the eastern seaboard or remains farther offshore. Even without direct landfall, the circulation of a developing cyclone can enhance the monsoon or draw in moisture that triggers periods of rain over eastern sections of Luzon and the Visayas, and at times parts of Mindanao.

Expected areas of impact and weather risks

PAGASA signaled that communities along the eastern side of the archipelago should stay alert for changing conditions should the weather system move closer or strengthen. Forecasters typically watch for increased rain chances in coastal provinces facing the Pacific, where bands of showers can arrive ahead of a cyclone’s center.

Beyond rainfall, PAGASA’s monitoring also reflects the possibility of gusty winds and rough seas in affected seaboards. These conditions can disrupt sea travel and small-scale fishing operations even when a system is outside PAR, particularly if swells are generated over open waters and propagate westward.

The most immediate risks associated with a strengthening disturbance include localized flooding in low-lying areas, rain-induced landslides in steep terrain, and hazardous conditions for marine activities. The agency’s subsequent bulletins and local weather forecasts are expected to provide more precise guidance on rainfall timing and wind conditions as the system’s structure and track become clearer.

Preparedness advisories and local coordination

PAGASA advisories generally emphasize readiness measures when an LPA shows signs of development, including monitoring official updates, preparing for intermittent heavy rain, and anticipating possible transport interruptions. Local government units and disaster risk reduction offices often use PAGASA’s information to determine preemptive actions such as clearing drainage systems, identifying evacuation contingencies in flood-prone communities, and coordinating with maritime authorities when sea conditions deteriorate.

As conditions evolve, PAGASA bulletins and rainfall warnings may be complemented by announcements from other agencies on class suspensions, port operations, and local travel advisories. Businesses and institutions typically align internal continuity plans with the latest government guidance, especially in areas that historically experience rapid flooding or are exposed to coastal surge and strong winds.

Business and economic implications

Developing tropical systems can quickly translate into operational risk for transport, logistics, and mobility across the Philippines. When strong winds and rough seas are expected, shipping schedules and inter-island ferry routes may face delays or cancellations, affecting the movement of passengers and time-sensitive cargo such as food products and industrial inputs.

Air travel disruptions are also possible if rain bands bring reduced visibility, crosswinds, or thunderstorms near airports serving eastern routes. Even localized weather disturbances can have knock-on effects on flight rotations and cargo uplift, prompting airlines and freight forwarders to adjust schedules or reroute shipments.

For retail and manufacturing supply chains, heavy rainfall can slow last-mile delivery and raise the risk of spoilage for perishable goods if cold-chain logistics are interrupted. Construction and field operations may also experience downtime due to safety concerns, particularly in projects located along coastlines, near waterways, or in elevated work sites exposed to strong gusts.

Agriculture and fisheries are among the sectors most sensitive to short-notice weather changes. Prolonged rain can affect planting schedules and harvesting activities, while rough sea conditions can limit fishing trips and reduce market supply. Local price effects can occur in areas where transport links are constrained, though outcomes vary depending on the duration of disruption and the availability of alternate routes.

What to watch in the next updates

PAGASA’s next advisories are expected to focus on whether the LPA consolidates and reaches tropical depression strength, and whether it will enter PAR. Key variables include the system’s forward speed and direction, as well as the extent of convection near the center—signals that a disturbance is strengthening.

Operational planners in both the public and private sectors typically monitor three developments: the probability of cyclone formation, the projected track relative to the eastern seaboard, and the evolution of wind and sea conditions that could affect ports, coastal roads, and power distribution. PAGASA’s bulletins, in coordination with local forecasts, will guide decisions on pre-positioning resources, adjusting work schedules, and issuing marine restrictions if required.

Locations and sectors commonly affected when an LPA strengthens near the eastern seaboard include:

• Eastern-facing coastal provinces and island communities reliant on sea transport
• Passenger and cargo shipping, ports, and inter-island ferry operations
• Aviation routes and airport operations during thunderstorm activity
• Ground logistics, delivery networks, and key highway corridors prone to flooding
• Agriculture, fisheries, and food supply chains exposed to rain and sea disruptions

Disclaimer: This report is for general information based on publicly available PAGASA updates and may change as new weather bulletins are issued. For official warnings and local instructions, refer to PAGASA and relevant local authorities.